What’s going on here? A prominent trader at Mercuria – one of the world's biggest energy and commodity trading firms – thinks that copper could ride this momentum all the way to record-breaking prices. What does this mean? Global copper prices have ramped up 14% this year, with the metal’s benchmark on the London Metal Exchange briefly topping $10,000 a ton. And Mercuria’s well-known trader thinks that number could jump as high as $13,000. But right now, it’s American price tags drawing attention: US copper is trading at $1,500 per ton more than the global average, with tariffs expected to limit imports into the country. So traders have been shipping every gram they can into the States, leaving the rest of the world short on supply – not least China, which usually buys over half the world’s copper. Why should I care? For markets: Shovels at the ready. The US president wants to bolster America’s domestic mining industry, determined to reduce the country’s reliance on international trading partners. By relaxing permit restrictions and greenlighting more mining projects, the US could cement itself as a major producer of the metal – and attract investment from all around the world. Think Rio Tinto or BHP: companies capable of building up significant operations in the States. But mining bosses have been let down before: after decades spent dealing with sluggish admin and policy U-turns, some are bracing for more talk than action. The bigger picture: The situation’s critical. Critical minerals like lithium and cobalt are – as the name suggests – critical for tech, defense, and infrastructure. That’s why import-dependent countries are reassessing supply chains and international relationships, given the geopolitical landscape right now. Mineral-rich nations, meanwhile, are tightening up their exports, pushing out foreign companies, and starting new state-owned mining ventures. The message is clear: to be successful, companies will need to have the right assets in the right places – or at least have friends who do. |