The UK has some serious debt problems | Oil might lose its popularity |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for November 15th in 3:15 minutes.

🌍 It’s been a tough time for the UK recently, but hopefully an investing masterclass with the best of the best can help you get to grips with it all. Join BlackRock’s experts for Finding Opportunities In A Challenging Market on Friday December 2nd, and find out how to set yourself up for the year ahead. Grab your free ticket

*UK investors only

Today's big stories

  1. The UK's been digging a financial hole, and new data showed that it's only getting deeper
  2. Here’s what you can expect from stocks in the next ten years – Read Now
  3. OPEC warned that demand for oil will likely slip during the fourth quarter

Drop The Shovel

Drop The Shovel

What’s Going On Here?

The UK’s financial hole is only getting deeper: the country’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned of a chunky increase in the government’s borrowing on Monday.

What Does This Mean?

Everyday Brits are having trouble budgeting, and it looks like the government’s no different. The OBR now expects the UK to end up around £100 billion ($118 billion) short (tweet this) – that’s the gap between what it’s spent and what it’s made in tax – in three years time, a jaw-dropping leap from the £30 billion ($35 billion) prediction it made in March. At least half of that increase is down to higher interest rates: as they ramp up, so do payments on the country’s current outstanding debt – and boy, are they ramping up.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Algebra 101.
If the OBR’s number crunchers have done their math right, that gap between government spending and tax earnings will be around 3% of the overall economy by 2027. Now, that isn’t crazy by historical standards, and governments can usually contain debt as a proportion of an economy by making sure the economy grows more than debt. But the UK can’t count on that handy trick right now: its economy has started shrinking while rising interest rates are fattening up its debt, and even the world’s best accountant can’t make those books balance.

The bigger picture: Pick your battles.
The UK’s battling a sluggish economy and runaway inflation, which is a tough twosome to tackle. See, a government can usually puff up an economy by upping spending and cutting taxes, but it’s the opposite tactics – scrounging on spending and pulling up taxes – that can tame inflation. And after the previous government’s economy-boosting, tax-cutting efforts got spectacularly shot down, it seems this new government sees the fight against inflation as an easier win. That means spending cuts and tax rises will probably be on the menu at this Thursday’s autumn statement unveiling.

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Analyst Take

What Will The S&P 500 Return Over The Next 10 Years?

What Will The S&P 500 Return Over The Next 10 Years?
Photo of Stéphane Renevier

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

If you’re thinking about putting a big chunk of your savings in the S&P 500 for the next ten years, you’ll want to have an idea of the range of returns you can expect. 

Luckily, there’s a framework that can help with that. 

And you can adjust it to suit your level of optimism – or pessimism. 

That’s today’s Insight: what this simple framework says about what you can expect from stocks in the next ten years.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Slippery Stash

Slippery Stash

What’s Going On Here?

OPEC – the group of oil producing nations – announced on Monday that it’s expecting demand for oil to slip, but said the supply cuts it announced last month could keep the market burning bright.

What Does This Mean?

OPEC raised the hackles of energy-deprived nations everywhere last month when it announced plans to cut oil production by a staggering two million barrels a day. But in fairness, you can’t really blame the group for trying to shore up oil's price when black gold’s their lifeblood. Flash forward six weeks, and its strategy now seems pretty well-timed: the group just warned that wilting global economies and China’s industry-crippling zero-Covid commitments look set to seriously drain demand in coming months.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming out: Oil’s up for the fight.
Oil’s up against more than economic slowdowns and Covid-induced slumps, mind you: the industry’s also facing long-term adjustments as the world attempts to pivot away from fossil fuels and head toward cleaner, renewable energy sources. OPEC seems ready for both though, with plans to monitor supply against short and long-term slips in demand. That might mean oil prices stay afloat longer than you’d think in the months to come, even as global economies sail into troubled waters.

For markets: Old habits die hard.
Big Oil’s record profits and all-time-high stock prices might mean it’s party time for the industry right now, but a painful hangover might be brewing. After all, if the world really can wean itself off fossil fuels, then in theory there’ll be zero demand for oil at some point down the line – a fate that no number of supply cuts could remedy. That’s not going to happen overnight, of course, but a slow, painful decline is more than possible: just ask long-suffering investors in firms like British American Tobacco – not-so-proudly boasting share prices that haven’t budged for eight years – how it feels when your core product falls out of favor.

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🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up This Week…

All events in UK time.

🐻 How To Survive A Crypto Bear Market: 7pm, November 15th

👀 And After That…

How To Successfully Invest In Dividend Stocks: 6pm, November 22nd
🚀 2023 Outlook: What’s Next For Crypto?: 6.30pm, November 23rd (in person, London)
🇬🇧 Making Smart Portfolio Moves During A Cost-Of-Living Crisis: 5pm, November 29th
🌍 Finding Opportunities In A Challenging Market With BlackRock: 1pm, December 2nd
🇦🇪 The Modern Investor Opening Party In Dubai: 6pm, December 6th
🎉 Modern Investor Summit: 12pm, December 6th and 7th

🎯 On Our Radar

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  3. Fidelity’s forward thinking. Here’s what its 2023 predictions actually mean.
  4. America is inhospitable. These outfits prove it.
  5. Art bites back. Meet the artists fighting against AI copycats.
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