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Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for December 3rd in 3:01 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. BNY Mellon argued stock markets might pull back this month after crushing records in November
  2. New research has laid out the economic winners and losers from climate change inaction – Read Now
  3. Goldman Sachs went all in on investing in the UK
1.

Bumpy Ride

Bumpy Ride

What’s Going On Here?

Major stock indexes might’ve flown over record highs in November, but investment bank BNY Mellon says stock markets could be feeling a little worse for wear by the end of the year (tweet this).

What Does This Mean?

Double-digit returns within the space of a month are rare for stock markets, but that’s exactly what the Stoxx 600 Europe index – which comprises 90% of the value of European stock markets – did in November, banking a record-breaking 14% rise. It even outperformed the major US indexes – and this in a month where the S&P 500 reached new highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest monthly jump since 1987.

Cue Christmas Grinch BNY Mellon, which thinks stocks could drop up to 7% before the year ends. And it’s not alone: other analysts have argued that the size and speed of the recent rally suggests stock markets probably don’t have much further to go this year.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Blessings in disguise.
BNY Mellon thinks the drop could actually work in investors’ favor and represent a good time to buy into some new stocks. The investment bank’s still optimistic for the future, after all: it reckons that once Europe and the US have limped through next quarter’s lingering coronavirus effects, a stock market recovery should kick off in the second quarter of 2021.

The bigger picture: It’s cyclicals’ time to shine.
This year’s US stock market rallies have generally been caused by a handful of Big Tech names, but this latest move higher has instead been driven by “cyclicals”: stocks that are sensitive to the economy and tend to do well when a recovery’s on the cards. That explains why European stock markets – which aren’t particularly tech-heavy – outperformed their American rivals, and why the rally’s benefiting a bigger selection of companies: 467 stocks in the main US stock market rose in November – the most since April.

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2. Analyst Take

Could Climate Change Actually Make The World Richer?

What’s Going On Here?

The world is getting hotter, and newly released research from Oxford Economics’ James Nixon suggests some countries might want to keep it that way.

Here’s why: cooler places in northern Europe or North America may get an economic boost from, say, more amenable crop-growing conditions.

That might limit their desire to take action – even as the complete opposite happens to warm countries like India or Nigeria.

In fact, that shift could reduce those countries’ levels of economic activity by as much as 15% by 2050.

So there’ll definitely be winners and losers from climate change in the years ahead, and James will tell you where to look for them in today’s Insight.

Get the full Insight here

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3.

Yaaaaaas Queen

Yaaaaaas Queen

What’s Going On Here?

According to a new report from investment bank Goldman Sachs, one ought to invest in the UK even though one knows Brexit is coming.

What Does This Mean?

Goldman Sachs reckons UK investments have a couple of big things going for them. For one, the firm is expecting the UK and European Union (EU) to finally reach a trade agreement in mid-December, which should give investors a bit more certainty about the country's relationship with European companies. And for another, it’s assuming vaccinations will be well underway by next quarter, and it's therefore forecasting better economic growth for the UK than most other analysts are.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Cheap and cheerful. 
Goldman Sachs is particularly keen on the British pound, as well as the stocks of companies that stand to benefit from it: think any that sell to the UK itself, like homebuilders and national banks. But frankly the country’s entire stock market looks cheap compared to others across the globe, says the firm. That’s partly because it’s heavily skewed toward companies in the energy and financial sectors – both of which have underperformed this year – and partly because investors have been shunning British assets until the one-two punch of Brexit and coronavirus starts to heal.

The bigger picture: Beat you to it. 
Looks like Goldman was right to assume vaccinations would be on their way soon: the UK became the first country to authorize the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for emergency use on Wednesday, with the rollout due to kick off next week. The US might not be far behind, while the EU’s regulator – which threw some shade at the UK by saying that a longer procedure was more appropriate – is shooting for the end of this month.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Everyone has talent. What is rare is the courage to follow the talent to the dark places where it leads.”

– Erica Jong (an American novelist, satirist, and poet)
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📚 What we're reading

  • Ditch your beard, get a sandwich (CNN)
  • Let’s make Zoom better (Aeon)
  • What is… outside? (Vice)
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