Airbnb wants your spare room | Maersk stayed in ship shape |

Hi Finimizer, here's what you need to know for November 3rd in 3:09 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Airbnb broke records after a big summer blowout, but investors are more focused on the dreary reality ahead
  2. Here’s why having a longer investment horizon could make you a winner – Read Now
  3. Shipping giant Maersk reported ship-shape quarterly results once again, but business could start sinking soon

Vacation Blues

Vacation Blues

What’s Going On Here?

Airbnb gave a disappointing quarterly update earlier this week, as the home-sharing platform’s summertime high wore off.

What Does This Mean?

Determined holidaymakers weren’t going to let canceled flights and extortionate airline tickets spoil their first restriction-free summer, so they did whatever they needed to reach their happy places. And because a lot of those happy places were Airbnb homes, the company managed to hoist its average daily rate up 5% from the same time last year and still record its most third-quarter bookings ever. That brought in record-breaking quarterly revenue of nearly $3 billion, $600 million more than analysts expected, and helped Airbnb bring profit up to an all-time high too.

But here’s the record scratch moment: Airbnb predicted the strong US dollar will take more than a nibble out of its rental income this quarter, which is partly why it gave a worse-than-expected revenue outlook. And since investors focus on the future, they sent the firm’s shares down 7% after the news.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Back to work.
End-of-summer reality might be about to hit Airbnb extra hard. See, bookings in increasingly desirable urban areas were up 27% last quarter, and those city spots tend to be much smaller – and, in turn, cheaper – than the bigger, more rural digs that were popular pandemic escapes. Mix in the potential of fresh competition from hotels that are only just recovering from lockdowns, and Airbnb might have to put in extra work this winter if it wants to stay ahead.

Zooming out: No more nice-to-haves.
Airbnb thinks these trying times could push more hard-up homeowners to rent out rooms to make some extra cash, but those shiny new locations could well end up empty. After all, the Federal Reserve’s fourth-straight 0.75-percentage-point hike on Wednesday takes interest rates to their highest since 2008, and that type of environment will pressure consumers to cut back on luxuries – not least flashy Airbnb vacations.

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Analyst Take

Can A Longer Investment Horizon Make You A Winner?

Can A Longer Investment Horizon Make You A Winner?
Photo of Stéphane Renevier

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

Long-term investors can seem pretty smug at times.

They know they can benefit from opportunities that short-term investors can’t, and they get to shrug off some of the day-to-day price swings that can tie a short-term investor in knots.

But that doesn’t mean a long-term approach is without its drawbacks.

That’s today’s Insight: the pros and cons of taking the long view.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Shape Up Or Ship Out

Shape Up Or Ship Out

What’s Going On Here?

Maersk, the world’s second-biggest shipping company, reported impressive quarterly results on Wednesday – but its outlook for the future was pretty puny.

What Does This Mean?

Global shipping giants like Maersk have had the wind in their sails the past couple of years, with strong pandemic demand and supply shortages sending shipping rates through the roof. Last quarter was no exception: sure, the number of containers it loaded fell by 8% compared to the same time last year, but it still posted a stellar 37% bump in revenue and its sixteenth-straight quarter of profit growth. Now, though, it looks like there’s a sea change on the horizon: the West is hurtling toward a recession and recovering supply chains are dampening shipping rates, so Maersk could find itself adrift before long. In fact, it already reckons global container demand will fall by as much as 4% this year.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Batten down the hatches.
Some of Maersk’s rivals expanded their fleets in recent years, but Maersk chose to add stabilizing ballast to its business instead. The firm focused more on strengthening its logistics arm – not its shipping operations – with a series of acquisitions that means the segment now brings in about $17 billion in annual revenue. That could turn out to be a smart move: there are signs the shipping industry’s currently heading toward the dangerous phase of its notorious “boom and bust cycles”.

The bigger picture: Shiver me timbers.
Maersk controls around a sixth of the world’s container trade, which means its performance pretty reliably reflects the strength of the $29-trillion global trade market – and by extension, the global economy as a whole. That makes its pessimism about growth going forward pretty worrying, and it’s not the only one sounding the alarm. Just last month, the International Monetary Fund cut its prediction for global growth next year to 2.7%, and said one in three economies is even at risk of contracting.

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💬 Quote of the day

“An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.”

– Friedrich Engels (a German socialist philosopher)
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Not another crisis…

There’s been a lot of reminiscing about past crises lately.

“Black Swan” events – things like the financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic-induced crash of 2020 – have been the talk of the town, with financial novices all around proclaiming a repeat.

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🥳 Coming Up In The Next Week…

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😎 How To Build A Portfolio Ready For The Next Decade: 1pm, November 3rd
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👀 And After That…

🔥 How To Build Better Financial Habits In Your 20s & 30s: 3pm, November 11th
♻️ How To Build An Eco-Friendly Crypto Portfolio: 1pm, November 14th
💥 How To Diversify During High Inflation: 6pm, November 14th
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🚀 2023 Outlook: What’s Next For Crypto?: 6.30pm, November 23rd (in person, London)
🌍 Finding Opportunities In A Challenging Market With BlackRock: 1pm, December 2nd
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