What’s Going On Here?Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, sending shockwaves through global markets. What Does This Mean?The West has been bracing for a Russian invasion of Ukraine for some time now, and things became even tenser on Monday when Russia recognized the independence of – and ordered troops to enter – two separatist Ukrainian regions. Turns out that was just the amuse-bouche: Russia ordered a full-scale invasion of its neighbor on Thursday.
This latest move crashed global stock markets and wiped a third of the value off Russia’s stocks in a single day – the biggest drop for the country on record (tweet this). The Russian ruble fell too, hitting an all-time low against the US dollar. Gold and government bonds, meanwhile, soared as investors rushed to buy safe-haven assets, along with the prices of European natural gas (up 30%) and oil, which hit $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Why Should I Care?For markets: The domino effect.
The problem is a global one, but it’ll take a particularly serious toll on Europe – not least because Russia is the biggest supplier of natural gas to the region. Natural gas is used to generate both electricity and heat, which means Europeans are now facing much higher energy bills over the next few months. That, in turn, will leave them with less cash to spend, which could ultimately derail the region’s much-needed economic recovery.
The bigger picture: The ECB’s in a pickle.
If economic growth does start to falter, the European Central Bank would usually just cut interest rates to encourage more borrowing and more spending. But the central bank’s interest rate is already at 0%, which doesn’t exactly leave much room for another cut. And if anything, the ECB should arguably be raising interest rates: it’s one of the best ways to counteract inflation, which energy prices are almost bound to push to yet another record high in the next month or two. | 
