A Wing And A Prayer

Image source: Cam Ferland Unsplash

What's going on?

The Federal Aviation Authority grounded all flights on Wednesday after a key IT system crashed.

What does this mean?

Airlines have had it tough lately, and Wednesdays flight-canceling technological mishap is yet another example of the roadblocks or, uh, flight blockers theyre up against. The whole debacle just about sums up investing in the industry: see, while plenty of sectors are negatively affected by world events, airlines have a reputation for being especially vulnerable. The pandemic, for one, literally grounded the sector for an achingly long time. Then almost as soon as vacationers started lining up at the check-in desks again, sky-high fuel prices a result of the ongoing war in Europe sent airlines costs heavenward. So while irrationally fearful fliers can find comfort in their pilots extensive training and impeccable safety record, nervous investors may be right to have their guards up.

Why should I care?

For markets: Ryanairs in the mile-high club.
There’s one airline that’s, ahem, flying high right now: Ryanair upped its profit forecast last week. The budget Irish carrier may not have the luxury trimmings that attract comfort-seeking business executives, but in a post-pandemic world, it’s the budget-savvy traveler that’s the real prize. So while other airlines face a long taxi back to their old highs, Ryanair’s stock already has lift-off its climbed 17% so far this year.

The bigger picture: Down in the debt dumps.
Mind you, this could be a well-needed lesson for airlines like Delta and American Airlines. Back in the pre-pandemic boom years, the over-confident carriers borrowed heaps of cash to fund sleek, new airplane fleets, betting that a never-ending stream of travelers would help them repay the loans. But Covid caught them unawares, and forced airlines to borrow even more just to stay afloat sorry, airborne. And because savvy would-be investors know those piling debts will get in the way of any lofty returns, theyre likely to take their time before climbing aboard.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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