New Year, Same Musk

Image source: Phil Stafford - Shutterstock

What's going on?

Tesla announced over the weekend that it stalled last quarter, meaning Musk might have to go back to the drawing board this year.

What does this mean?

The control panels in Tesla HQ were probably flashing red as 2022 drew to a close including the critical Demand meter, whose needle seemed to have slipped pretty far into the red zone. That drop could be why the firm took the unusual move of offering bumper incentives in its two biggest markets, the US and China, but it seems that was too little, too late. Sure, deliveries swelled 11% from the previous quarter to hit a record high of over 405,000, but they still fell short of the 421,000 analysts were expecting. That brought 2022s deliveries 40% above the previous years a far cry from the 50% average annual growth rate the companys been crowing about.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Build it and they wont come.
Theres never a good time for demand to slip, but you certainly dont want it to happen shortly after opening two new plants. That extra factory space helped Tesla ramp up production, meaning it’s now made more cars than it’s delivered for three straight quarters. But over-manufacturing is hardly a sustainable business model in the current economy, and analysts reckon the company has two options: cut growth targets or double-down on price cuts and neither prospect will appeal to the EV giant or its investors right now.

For markets: Down but not out.
Teslas current trajectory paired with Musks distracted Twitter antics might explain why the EV manufacturers stock plunged nearly 40% in December alone. The firm even notched its worst daily drop since 2020 on Tuesday after the dismal deliveries news. Still, investors have far from abandoned the titan. After all, even after the drop, its price-to-earnings ratio a key valuation metric is still around five times that of rivals GM and Ford, reflecting the much greater speed that Teslas expected to grow at.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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