Unpopular And Ailing

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What's going on?

Data out on Wednesday showed that Chinas economic activity slowed even further last month, as Covid infections and restrictions played havoc with industry.

What does this mean?

Irate citizens are just one result of Chinas ongoing restrictions: business has also taken quite a bruising. Over half of Chinese firms reported Covid cases in the workforce last month, as Novembers infections hit an all-time high. And with the countrys uber-strict Covid rules still in force, its no surprise thats sapping manufacturing: gauges measuring raw material stock, new orders, and employment all shrank in November, taking the overall activity reading for the sector to the lowest since April. And the results in other areas, like services and construction, didnt make for pleasant reading either, notching up shiver-inducing contractions of their own.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Lower your expectations.
This data will be another blow to the Chinese government, which was once counting on economic growth of 5.5% this year. Economists at Bloomberg now reckon the figure will be more like 3% and this week the International Monetary Fund warned that it may have to cut its 3.2% prediction even further. But experts are hopeful the government will beef up economic stimulus in response, including cutting interest rates, to offset some damage and help spur a recovery.

The bigger picture: Or just relax.
The Chinese government could always just ease up on its zero-Covid stance, of course a path it already seems to be taking in manufacturing-heavy Guangzhou. On Wednesday authorities relaxed restrictions in about half of the regions districts, despite Covid cases numbering in the thousands. And the uncharacteristic move has caught the eye of investors: it seems theyre hoping this signals a tactical pivot, which might be why a key index tracking Chinese stocks in Hong Kong jumped 2%, to close out November with its biggest monthly rise in 19 years.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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