(Bloomberg) --

Double-digit inflation is set to return in the UK and linger through the end of this year despite the government’s effort to cap energy bills, a survey of economists shows.

The findings gathered by Bloomberg also suggest the economy is now in a recession that will last until the second half of 2023 and that the Bank of England’s benchmark rate will almost double to 4.25% early next year.

The figures paint a bleak outlook for Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government, which is trying to bolster growth and soften the impacts of a surge in electricity and natural gas prices triggered by Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

The survey completed on Thursday predates the current turmoil in Truss’s government. She fired Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor of the exchequer on Friday and backtracked on some commitments to cut taxes in an effort to reassure investors that debt won’t spiral out of control.

The government will release inflation statistics on Wednesday. Economists anticipate a reading of 10% for September, up from 9.9% the month before but below the peak of 10.1% recorded in July. Later in the week, retail sales figures may show a sharp drop for September along with a record plunge in consumer confidence, the survey shows.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg cut their forecasts for gross domestic product, anticipating a contraction of 0.4% next year and an expansion of 1.2% in 2024, well short of Truss’s 2.4% target.

The length of the recession is put a whole year, starting in the third quarter when output is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%. GDP won’t grow again until the final three months of 2023.

The median forecast is for inflation of 10.3% in the fourth quarter of this year before tailing off to average 6.2% n 2023 and 2.6% in 2024 -- still above the BOE’s 2% target. Economists revised down their figures for this year and next by 0.2 percentage point and 0.6 respectively after the government’s pledge to freeze energy bills from this month.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.